About We Did It!?

Origins

The idea for the We Did It!? project emerged from the coincidence of two disparate events. First, in June of 2021, the Canadian government enacted the Canadian Net-Zero Emissions Accountability Act, enshrining its Net Zero by 2050 pledge into law. Second, we learned that Lund University in Sweden was in the midst of creating LU375, a version of their university magazine set in 2041 (the 375th birthday for Lund University) reflecting on what higher education might look like 20 years in the future.

This kind of future-history storytelling has been gaining momentum in climate circles (see for example Lund’s Museum of Carbon Ruins; Naomi Oreskes and Erik Conway’s book on collapse of civilization) in addition to a recent explosion of climate fiction—clifi (e.g., this Grist.org project, too many novels to name, or Manjana Milkoreit, Meredith Martinez, and Joey Eschrich’s volume of clifi short story contest winners, Everything Change). To our knowledge none of these projects have addressed the pursuit of net zero goals (and especially not in Canada).

That said, there are several think-tank reports on pathways to decarbonization and net zero, some specifically about Canada (e.g., Canadian Climate Institute, Canada’s Net Zero Advisory Body) that discuss policy and technical needs for pursuing net zero. We drew on these reports for our world building exercises.

Our motivation to pursue this project was the idea that we might be able to develop a future-history approach that used stories to help people imagine both what a net zero world might look like in Canada and how it might come about, but ground those stories in understandings of social, political, and technical dynamics from the social and sustainability sciences. We hoped to produce engaging stories through grounded imagination.

Our lofty goal for the project was/is to contribute to and help catalyze the conversation around pursuing Net Zero in Canada—to enhance the policy process and spark a public conversation.

Methods & Processes

Our process started with desk research in two areas, facilitated by our excellent research assistants (Carley Chavara, Ella Hartsoe, and Samantha Tristen). First, we explored the range of net zero reports produced by the Canadian government and Canadian think tanks as well as the academic literature on net zero pursuits to get a sense of how the policy world is envisioning the pursuit of net zero and what it would take technically and in terms of economic, technical, and social policy/politics to achieve. We also reviewed the literature on future-oriented methodologies (focused mainly on backcasting, scenario development, premortem analysis, and climate imaginaries) to guide our thinking on how to develop stories with a backbone of social science knowledge.

Second,  we convened a small workshop with experts on energy transitions and climate policy in Canada. We asked the experts to reflect on four questions:

• How might you expect actual net zero in energy (assuming we achieve it) to deviate from a utopian version of net zero in the Canadian energy sector (i.e. net zero plus democracy, equity, justice, etc.)?

• What do you think is most likely to derail net zero processes/momentum in Canada?

• What existing drivers/processes are pushing toward or away from achieving net zero?

• What are the most promising factors/processes that could change trajectories moving forward?

These discussions helped us to develop a roster of dynamics and factors that could be the baseline for stories—we grouped these into enablers, obstacles, wildcards, and theories of change:

Our third step was convening a small workshop with writers to get a sense of what they would need from experts and from discussions in the symposium to develop stories. The workshop provided excellent plans for structuring the writing workshop to best engage both writers and experts.

For the writing symposium itself, we brought together about 20 experts (some from the first workshop) and writers (some from the second workshop) for three days of discussions and brainstorming of story ideas.

Leading up to the symposium the editors developed initial world-building parameters to focus the discussion:

At the writing symposium itself, we introduced a three horizons future building device that we learned about at an Earth Systems Governance conference in October on a panel organized by Michele-Lee Moore. This method structured our discussions of what a net zero world of 2050 might look like, what aspects of the current status quo would need to change (or disappear), and what dynamics would feature prominently in the transition.

The agenda and plan for the symposium evolved significantly over the course of the three days as we figured out, collectively, what we needed and what was involved in developing stories collaboratively in a highly interdisciplinary setting. We spent a significant amount of time elaborating on the world building and discussing what change dynamics to feature. We also undertook multiple rounds of brainstorming story ideas individually and in groups and workshopping those ideas. The workshop produced a list of story ideas that participants (both writers and social scientists) volunteered to flesh out into drafts. The editors and two readers from the symposium reviewed drafts of each story. The editors then reviewed and suggested final revisions for each draft and edited for consistency with the world in which the ezine inhabits. We decided to develop both a print and online version of the zine. A student team with zine publishing experience did the layout and design.

The final step was launching the zine into the world. This event included an “in-character” presentation as if we were in 2050 actually launching a ‘real’ zine, with readings by authors. It also included a panel discussion back in 2023 on politics and climate imaginaries.

Social Science and technical kernels in each story

Story Foundations

Each story was built on (or references) one or more change dynamics that social science and/or technical experts have identified as key to delivering a just and comprehensive Net Zero Canada. Some of the stories highlight changes that are not made or changes that are only made after other, problematic choices are tried first. Others explore unintended consequences and unforeseen connections between change dynamics. The stories differ on how ‘surface’ the change dynamics are in the narrative, but each draw on kernels of social/technical dynamics from academic study that illuminate what might be necessary to achieve net zero and/or possible consequences (positive, neutral, or negative) of pursuing net zero policies.

 The stories self-consciously reference changes that are needed/important in pursuit of net zero rather than exploring specifically how those changes came about. For instance, the Just Transition Act of 2032 in Alberta is mentioned in a few stories and is crucial to the substance of the stories being told, but no story details how the act came about. Similarly, a couple of stories refer to changes in the national grid, but no story takes that development as its main narrative. It is an open question as to which approach is more effective at sparking conversation. The project is experimental. Future volumes might add stories that explore the specific emergence of a ‘necessary’ policy or change, for example. Or, perhaps a more atmospheric approach will better generate conversation than a more fine-grained approach to change dynamics (which might veer more towards backcasting).

Setting aside how ‘surface’ the change dynamics are, each story idea emerged from small group discussions of the leverage points, technical requirements, and change dynamics mentioned above. Groups worked from a specific area (e.g., normative change or an infrastructural shift) and then built characters and a narrative that either 1. explored those specific kernels or 2. elaborated the ramifications for people/society that arose from those specific kernels. In this way, the social science ideas about change (and obstacles to it) as well as the technical aspects of pursuing net zero provided a seed around which the stories developed. To be clear, this is not about producing net zero scenarios or proposing an exact policy/technical pathway. It is, instead, designed to provide a way for readers to imagine (concretely and in a relatable way) the possibilities of policy and technical choices. In the blurbs that follow, we identify the levers and technical or social/political change dynamics assumed or implicit at the foundation of the stories or explored through the story telling.

Net Zero People—Jack Finney

Technical Change Dynamics: This piece emerged from discussions about the potential evolving geography of energy production across Canada and some of the technical grid requirements for achieving net zero, specifically the growth of the Atlantic Loop and more interprovincial and international inter-ties.

Social and Political Change Dynamics: This story assumes that inter-provincial and provincial-federal politics shift in a way that make large-scale renewable energy infrastructure projects viable. Further, it builds from an imagined political shift whereby just transition policies become more taken for granted as necessary nation-wide as part of the adaptation to net zero policies. Jack’s migration story is made possible by both changes in energy production, but also by a shift toward just transition in Alberta and Indigenous-Settler reconciliation efforts (ownership of energy assets) in Atlantic Canada.

Net Zero People—Deepa Prakash

Social and Political Change Dynamics: This piece found its origins in analyses of the failed Green Energy Act in Ontario (2009 and repealed January 1, 2019). Social science work has highlighted how a failure to consider the post initiative politics around (among other issues) local control contributed to the rollback of this climate initiative. The story is premised on our observation that in 2023 two pathways to net zero (biofuel dominant and renewable energy dominant) are being pursued through policy and funding. It envisions the possible emergence of a renewable dominant pathway from contestation over land, agricultural, and energy policy due to, in part, the dynamics and politics of local control. The context of the story also draws on ideas about the likely future of international climate migration and changes in agricultural production and trade in the face of climate change.

Being Climate Friendly Helps Beloved Bakery Through Sticky Situations 

Technical Change Dynamics: This story is based, in part, on extrapolating forward the push for decarbonizing the building sector already underway. It imagines a somewhat rocky path to climate smart buildings as they become more widespread.

Social and Political Change Dynamics: Societal grappling with income distribution and issues of affordability during an energy transition are at the heart of this narrative. It imagines that public unrest about energy prices, recession, and income distribution generate political support for changing economic policies toward redistribution and energy cost support. It also suggests that building code evolution and city planning/zoning will be crucial for ushering in widespread effective, and equitable decarbonization of the building sector.

Shrooms for the Climate

Technical Change Dynamics: Mycelium insulation panels are a technology already in use (albeit not widespread). This story shows how technological innovation is not always at the heart of new industries - in fact many of these ‘underground’ but transformative technologies already exist but are not widely adopted until there is a market/cultural push to do so.

Social and Political Change Dynamics: Widespread adoption of new technologies requires a diverse and inclusive consumer base. Mycelium insulation began through a kitschy, underground, and localized production network but spread more widely as non-profits and industry responded to community and market pressures (respectively). This story also calls attention to the ways that exogenous constraints (such as waves of supply chain disruptions from wars, floods, and heatwaves) can slow even well-intentioned progress towards the net zero policy objective.

Word of the Year 2040

Technical Change Dynamics: At the foundation of this story is the continuation of current trends toward the electrification of transportation with an additional continuation of personal vehicles as a significant mode of transportation.

Social Change Dynamics: This story extrapolates from policy pledges being made in multiple jurisdictions to phase out internal combustion engines. It builds on social science ideas about normative shifts and the ways in which changes in language both reflect and affect social change. Language reflects dominant modes of social thought, organization, and production, which are discussed both in terms of understanding the normative foundations of the status quo and imagining and speaking a new social reality into existence.

2050’s Hottest Christmas Gift – Artisan Direct Air Capture Calcite Sculptures

Technical Change Dynamics: This story emerged from a discussion of potential net zero pathway based on direct air capture/carbon capture and storage. It departs from a current trajectory where significant subsidies are being directed to capture technology, which the fossil energy sector envisions as a way to maintain its viability. It suggests that a variety of capture technologies are developed at scale.

Social and Political Change Dynamics: The story imagines that a carbon capture dominant trajectory toward net zero is eventually seen as a mistake, especially the idea that capture technology will be a way to maintain the prominence of the fossil energy sector in Canada. It imagines that increasing international pressure, among other factors, decreases the political power of the fossil energy sector and leads to a decreased (though still prominent) role for carbon capture in Canada’s net zero trajectory.

Thirsty

Technical Change Dynamics: The story explores the supply side of the renewable energy transition and the dependence on critical minerals for energy storage technologies. It connects the growth of the electric mobility market and battery innovations to positive spillover opportunities for stand alone, microgrid development at the level of neighborhoods. 

Social and Political Change Dynamics: This story underlines the tensions inherent in a transition that relies on unequal international terms of trade, in which some countries produce raw materials with little added value and others manufacture and consume innovative renewable technologies. It is a cautionary tale, highlighting some of the logical results of ignoring current calls for a just transition. It also highlights the multiple ways in which extractive logics go beyond mining for minerals, and also involve extracting knowledge, pictures, and stories when (consciously or unconsciously) academics and journalists participate in unequal exchanges with Indigenous and local communities.

Pride and Joy

Technical Change Dynamics: This story develops in a context of electrified transportation, extrapolating current trends. It also depends on the potential that experts see for increasing stress on electrical grids from the increasing loads that comes with widespread electrification as well as from increasingly serious and frequent heat events.

Social and Political Change Dynamics: While the story is interpersonal in nature, at its foundation are two levers of social and political change. First, it imagines that the activities and efficacy of more radical social movements will influence the development of climate policy and public attitudes towards climate change in a way that supports aggressive net zero policy. Second, it is based on a continuing powerful role for capital/finance in shaping how the pursuit of net zero plays out and the contestation over that role and what decisions financial interests make.

Discredited

Technical Change Dynamics: Development of land use and ocean-based carbon sinks; increasing use of satellite monitoring of land use changes, participatory data collection and monitoring in remote spaces (e.g., forests, oceans); and pressure for rapid technological shifts owing to limits of nature-based solutions.

Social and Political Change Dynamics: This story is premised on the entrenchment of norms, targets and a general discourse of net-zero currently gaining traction. It assumes net zero legitimates policies that support carbon capture, negative emission technologies and offsetting, especially consistent with nature-based solutions, particularly in major fossil fuel producing jurisdictions like Canada. The result is policy enablers domestically and internationally that incentivize private actors, investment, and participation in large-scale offset markets. More generally, the story illustrates how such markets and investments implicate public-private governance interactions and increase pressures to regulate, for example in response to public opinion and activity from non-governmental groups and peer pressure internationally including North-South dynamics and international negotiations over climate justice and responsibility. In our timeline, recognition grows by the 2030s that these technologies and strategies cannot overcome accounting challenges and may unintentionally incentivize fraud, leading to delegitimation when the consensus science indicates they are delaying decarbonization (see Artisan). The story raises questions about policy and political responses to “solutions” like offsetting that fail to incentivize shifts away from fossil fuel production and delay energy transitions. It also recognizes the political dynamics generated by strong coalitions enabled under “net zero” that may be resistant to deeper transformation.

Disaster

Technical Change Dynamics: The need for critical minerals to develop renewable energy technologies has already produced a call for onshoring mining to Ontario’s Ring of Fire and to reopen mines previously closed, sometimes for decades. This story envisions this activity accelerating, extrapolating from industrial policies such as Ontario’s Critical Minerals Strategy 2022–2027 and Canada’s Critical Minerals Strategy announced in December 2022. 

Social and Political Change Dynamics: The rush to mine for the climate, along with federal and provincial government assurances that Canada is a safer jurisdiction in terms of regulatory oversight (e.g., legal frameworks, environmental impacts, and social license to operate) leads to a mining disaster that mobilizes collective action. It also links to broader economic development/industrial strategies along supply chains that include manufacturing in renewable technologies, especially for use in the transportation sector. The story raises critical questions regarding the negative impacts of mining on community and ecosystem health. A focus on onshoring mining to secure steady access to critical minerals and mitigate disruptions to the supply chain avoids addressing questions of justice such as how much consumption is required, who benefits, and who pays for a transition that only focuses on CO2 emissions. While the initial levers focus on political shifts already underway to support industrial policies, Northern development, and framings of net-zero, the story also highlights levers of change driven by communities and social movements, as well as health and justice concerns.

Tragic Resilience of Humanity

Climate Change Dynamics: Rather than technical change, this story finds its foundation in projections of climate impacts, especially increasing dangerous heat and flooding events in South Asia.

Social and Political Change Dynamics: The potential evolution of the global response to climate change provides the seed for this story. It imagines that the global politics around Loss and Damage that were prominent in the 2022 Conference of the Parties of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP 27) continue to be a focal point for South-North discussions moving forward and that they begin to dominate foreign aid flows. The story assumes that the Paris Agreement continues to orient global climate politics and that there is an uneasy and uneven, but ongoing commitment in the international community to pursuing collective climate action.

Travelogue

Technical Change Dynamics: This story envisions an evolution of transportation, electrification, and multiple shifts in agriculture in response to incentives to produce biofuels to later pressures to increase food production as climate change unevenly affects different agricultural zones in North America.

Social and Political Change Dynamics: The trip envisioned in the story presupposes widespread mobility shifts that initially required significant government interventions such as urban transportation charges, large-scale investments in rail, and other policies that incentivized rail travel. Meanwhile, climate refugee movement occurs owing to uneven and severe impacts in different parts of the world, including parts of North America, and the story assumes that adaptation and responses to this movement would be uneven and disruptive. This story raises critical questions about the role, or possible necessity, of public investments and policies to incentivize change as well as the extension of just transition policies to newcomers, including climate refugees.

Community Forum

Technical Change Dynamics: The Community Bulletin takes a snapshot of a neighborhood conflict that emerges as a result of an expanding coyote population. This conflict was enabled by increased urban greenspaces for local food production and urban farming. The underlying assumption is that cities have created more connected green spaces, reduced traffic, increased public transportation and bike lanes. It points to the adjustments required as people relearn how to live in such new places.

Social and Political Change Dynamics: The conflict sees local chicken co-op members, restaurateurs, and anti-poverty coalitions who champion urban livestock farms pitted against greenbelt enthusiasts and animal rights activists who want to protect the coyotes. The argument that plays out between the two camps points to several tensions between: rural and urban spaces, aesthetics of chicken coops over function, NIMBYism of the anti chicken coalition, cohabitation with animals versus animal control, and perceptions of conflict caused by wildlife versus humans.

Help Wanted

Technical Change Dynamics: The story assumes a repurposing and recycling of carbon-intensive infrastructure helped to disrupt carbon lock-in and overcome resource constraints. The pursuit of a circular economy allows for abandoned and decommissioned infrastructure to be harnessed as an opportunity, rather than an environmental ill.

Social and Political Change Dynamics: This story imagines the creation of new employment opportunities in manufacturing and energy sectors that see economic contractions through transition and how those opportunities help to foster a more diverse workforce in several categories of labour and professions throughout Canada. Progress on Indigenous-settler reconciliation is at the heart of this ad, which depicts a positive and optimistic story about how Indigenous communities in Alberta have reclaimed both emission-intensive infrastructure and their own economic futures. This ad also predicts that market forces will ultimately play a key role in shaping the incentives to transition to net zero, pushing in the same direction as other social forces that move Canada to specialize in new industries, like recycling, in place of emission-intensive energy production and transmission (a new direction for TransMountain).